“Gold Bulls Keep the Faith” – Bloomberg

Posted on :Oct 25, 2013


October 25, 2013

Gold analysts are bullish for a second week on speculation that prolonged U.S.  stimulus and a weakening dollar will boost demand for the metal as a haven.

Seventeen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expect prices to advance next  week, nine are bearish and six neutral. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, a  measure against 10 currencies, slid to an eight-month low this week as U.S.  employers added fewer jobs than expected last month. Gold’s 30-week correlation  coefficient to the index is at minus 0.53, with a figure of minus 1 meaning the  two always mofve in opposite directions.

A 16-day U.S. government shutdown this month probably hurt economic growth,  at a time when the Federal Reserve is debating whether to trim stimulus. Gold  rose 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2  trillion into the financial system. The metal tumbled into a bear market in  April and is heading for its first annual drop in 13 years as some investors  lost faith in bullion as a store of value.

“It’s pretty clear with the shutdown lasting over two weeks and the negative  news with the non-farm payrolls that it would be a brave Fed to announce  tapering at this stage,” said Jonathan Butler, a precious metals strategist at  Mitsubishi Corp. International (Europe) Plc in London. “The potential for  tapering to be delayed plus the residual weakness in the dollar might give some  extra oomph to precious metals.”

American Eagles

Bullion fell 20 percent to $1,340.61 an ounce in London this year. Prices  that reached a record $1,921.15 in September 2011 rallied as much as 7.8 percent  since Oct. 15. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities dropped  3.9 percent since the start of January and the MSCI All-Country World Index of  equities gained 17 percent. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index lost 1.8  percent.

Prices also rallied on signs of improving demand for physical metal. Sales of  American Eagle gold coins by the U.S. Mint are set for the best month since July  and holdings in bullion-backed funds rose the most in a year on Oct. 22,  according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Lawmakers agreed to increase the debt limit on Oct. 16, ending a partial  government shutdown that President Barack Obama’s chief economic adviser said  probably trimmed 0.25 percentage point from fourth-quarter economic growth. U.S.  employers added 148,000 workers in September, trailing economists’ expectations  of a gain of 180,000, the Labor Department said Oct. 22.

                          Policy Makers

Fed policy makers unexpectedly refrained from slowing the $85 billion of  monthly bond-buying last month and economists surveyed by Bloomberg Oct. 17-18  said the central bank probably will maintain that level until March.

The U.S. Mint sold 38,000 ounces of American Eagle coins so far this month,  almost triple September’s total, data on its website show. Gold holdings in  exchange-traded products rose by 6.5 metric tons on Oct. 22, the most since  October 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The first net purchases through ETPs in more than two weeks lifted holdings  from the lowest since April 2010. Investors sold 742.7 tons this year, erasing  $60.3 billion from the value of the products. John Paulson, the billionaire  hedge fund manager and biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold  ETP, cut his stake in the product by 53 percent in the second quarter, a  government filing showed.

While gold’s drop through the end of the year may be less substantial than  previously forecast, investors may use any rallies as an opportunity to sell  because stimulus tapering has only been delayed, ABN Amro Group NV said in an  Oct. 23 report. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects prices will be at $1,050 at  the end of 2014.

                        Inflation Outlook

Bullion slid from its 2011 all-time high partly because unprecedented money  printing failed to stoke inflation. Expectations for gains in U.S. consumer  prices, as measured by the break-even rate for 10-year Treasury Inflation  Protected Securities, reached a five-week low yesterday.

India, last year’s biggest gold consumer, restricted imports of the metal  this year to curb a record current-account deficit. A shortage pushed premiums  over the spot price to a record this week, according to the All India Gems &  Jewellery Trade Federation. Demand for bullion before the Diwali festival that  takes place at the start of November may support prices, said James Moore, an  analyst at FastMarkets Ltd. in London.

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